US and Iran conflict thread. ( merged threads)
- Thread starter TEOTWAWKI inc.
- Start date
spat
.700 Nitro Express
Politicians like to drag out wars as long as possible by trying to keep everything "proportional". They look at war as diplomacy by other means. They look at the fighting itself as a goal by which they can gain personal power and riches.
And that always turns into a shit show. See Vietnam, and the current Ukraine situation for examples.
The proper way to conduct war is not to say "how much should we strike the enemy". The proper way is to say "bring as much violence as we can, as fast as we can and get this over with once and for all as soon as possible"
WWII after D-day and Desert Storm are examples there.
So, *if* we need to go in somewhere, we should bring the full might of the US military to bear as quickly as possible, and the goal shouldn't be to bring the enemy to the negotiation table. It should be to eliminate their ability to wage war at all.
Concerns for "collateral damage" should be dismissed out of hand, you strike military targets with as much force as the target merits, regardless of where it is or what else gets in the way.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
We lose nothing.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Yeah but then how will they make money?
spat
.700 Nitro Express
You think there are no consequences to the US if Iran gets nukes ?
The country who's national slogan is "death to America" gets nukes, and you don't think that could present a problem for us ?
How short sighted can you be ?
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
No I dont. I dont believe for one minute they would ever use nukes against us except in self defense.
TEOTWAWKI inc.
.338 Win Mag
Iran may not, but their proxies sure would.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Funny thing is, it is the very threats against Iran which are driving them to obtain nukes
spat
.700 Nitro Express
How about Isreal ? You don't think Iran would nuke Isreal?
You think we can just sit back and ignore it if *that* happens ?
You need to look a few steps ahead.
There are things they very well might do that will set in motion a chain of events that absolutely *will* drag us into a shit show.
You wouldn't think some minor Austrian noble getting assassinated would matter to us either, but it's a small planet.
Your attitude is like living in a small apartment building and saying "it's none of my business if the kid in 2c likes playing with matches".
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Not our fight, Why bring Isreal into it? , Your willing to kill thousands of Iranians spend hundreds of billions of dollars to defend Israel when they haven't done anything to us?
just how much blood and treasure are we going to spend defending these people and why?
Why not? I dont see the strategic or economic value of defending such a tiny nation, If Isreal was wiped off the map It would make no difference to Europe or the US , Wouldnt change anything. We wouldnt collaspe, We wouldnt have higher prices , makes no difference. Show me the value of defending them.
The only thing dragging us into a shit show is the fact We are are willing to defend them to begin with. We gave them money, Nukes and and a massive military , Thats enough. More than enough.
So you kill the kid? Because thats exactly what your doing.
The problem with Isreal is that both sides make claims regarding the land that goes back thousands of years because both peoples lived there. Its the chicken or the egg argument . Nobody can say with 100% certainty who is right or wrong . the smartest people in the world cant solve the issue . And really, its not our issue to solve . Its something those two partys need to resolve for themselves. I take Issue with making Isreal's enemy's our enemy's. with no benefit. We should not be involved in it . Let them settle it .
If you can demonstrate the vital national, strategic interests in defending them , I can be swayed to thinking its worth it. But as far as I can see they offer us nothing and ask for everything.
I also feel that launching an attack against Russia because they invaded Estonia is on the same level. Its not worth the blood and treasure . and its none of our business.
One thing Iran has learned is I'm sure they are looking at 2 recent examples; Libya and north Korea.
Remember how well things worked out for Qadaffi when he actually tried to cooperate and opened up and dismantled his weapons program? The guy was a vile evil person, but the outcome and what happened to him and Libya surely isn't lost on Iran.
How about north Korea? The norks kept giving the world the middle finger now they are a fledgling nuclear power and currently building nuclear subs even. They have essentially guaranteed their survival to not be pre-emptively attacked and regime changed except in all of the most dire circumstances. The norks can continue to be as belligerent as they want because now they have nukes and as long as they don't jump the shark and do something really stupid the rest of the world will complain and moan but isn't actually willing to do anything.
In this case those 2 examples of one dictator being wiped out, country devolving into chaos and ending up on the end of a rope compared to a country which is gaining regional influence and has for the short term at least guaranteed regime continuation.
In this example it's clear, Might makes right.
Iran has to have learned this.
I HATE the idea of a nuclear armed Iran. Nothing good will come from it. But I also hate the idea of going to war with them to prevent an eventuality. Even if we utterly bomb the shit out of them and trigger global chaos and likely the deaths of many Americans both military and civilians because you can believe that there will be attacks here at home. Best case scenario maybe we set their nuclear program back 10 years. Then what we do this all over again in another decade? They are gain the knowledge and will just learn from this and take further measures to protect and harden their nuclear program 2.0
If they are dead set on achieving a goal of being a nuclear state there is nothing we can do to prevent it short of turning their entire country into a glass sheet but do we have the stomach to do that? Do we have the resiliency to willing isolate us from the world as we would be the new pariah state the rest of the world would collectively hate?
I'm trying to be pragmatic because the world is not idealistic, it is what it is.
Remember how well things worked out for Qadaffi when he actually tried to cooperate and opened up and dismantled his weapons program? The guy was a vile evil person, but the outcome and what happened to him and Libya surely isn't lost on Iran.
How about north Korea? The norks kept giving the world the middle finger now they are a fledgling nuclear power and currently building nuclear subs even. They have essentially guaranteed their survival to not be pre-emptively attacked and regime changed except in all of the most dire circumstances. The norks can continue to be as belligerent as they want because now they have nukes and as long as they don't jump the shark and do something really stupid the rest of the world will complain and moan but isn't actually willing to do anything.
In this case those 2 examples of one dictator being wiped out, country devolving into chaos and ending up on the end of a rope compared to a country which is gaining regional influence and has for the short term at least guaranteed regime continuation.
In this example it's clear, Might makes right.
Iran has to have learned this.
I HATE the idea of a nuclear armed Iran. Nothing good will come from it. But I also hate the idea of going to war with them to prevent an eventuality. Even if we utterly bomb the shit out of them and trigger global chaos and likely the deaths of many Americans both military and civilians because you can believe that there will be attacks here at home. Best case scenario maybe we set their nuclear program back 10 years. Then what we do this all over again in another decade? They are gain the knowledge and will just learn from this and take further measures to protect and harden their nuclear program 2.0
If they are dead set on achieving a goal of being a nuclear state there is nothing we can do to prevent it short of turning their entire country into a glass sheet but do we have the stomach to do that? Do we have the resiliency to willing isolate us from the world as we would be the new pariah state the rest of the world would collectively hate?
I'm trying to be pragmatic because the world is not idealistic, it is what it is.
spat
.700 Nitro Express
We have a long history of attempting an isolationist policy.
It never ends well.
Because imperialist regimes never stop.
and eventually they will take something you can't ignore.
Which country do you see as the imperialist regime?
There are basically bad options and worse options. If you were an advisor and president Trump asked for your opinion, what would you say on how to handle Iran? Not trying to put you on the spot just genuinely curious.
spat
.700 Nitro Express
Both Russia and Iran have imperialist ambitions.
China too.
All are held in check by the presence of US power.
And it would be absolutely a disaster for US interests if any of them were able to get what they want.
One of Trump's greatest strengths as POTUS is that our enemies fear him.
He needs to cultivate that.
The way he handled Iran during his last stint in office was perfect. He reminded them that they are powerless if we come after them, so do not provoke us.
This is in direct contrast to the way Biden and Obama handle things, where the image they project is "fuck with us a bit and you can easily extort truckload of cash from us".
If Trump needs to execute another Soleimani type strike to remind them of their position, then he should do it.
If it takes something "Operation Praying Mantis" size, then send it.
Better to execute a small operation today than get dragged into another Desert Shield/Storm later.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
China is imperialist? They haven't invaded anyone e in 500 years.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
If 2 allies of us went to war, which side should us back?
Robin
.577 Tyrannosaur.
Well Tibetan's might take issue with that statement, well the ones that are still alive anyway. And, well the Vietnamese have repelled their northern neighbors' incursions a few times, successfully, but it still counts.
Robin
I think we are witnessing the dawn of the age of Chinese imperialism.
They are carefully bidding their time and planning for the opportune moment to expand. They have a stated goal and vision to have the Chinese race be the dominant global people. They want control. Just because they haven't attempted it "yet" doesn't mean that they are not imperialist minded.
I would also be willing to bet China is going hard into genetically engineered bio weapons that very heavily target Caucasian DNA vulnerabilities and are specifically tuned to not infect or afflict those same Chinese DNA versions.
I worry about China more than any other country. I think we are entering Thucydides Trap territory with them where it's almost inevitable for a great conflict to have a clear winner and loser to be the dominant power for the next 100 years.
spat
.700 Nitro Express
No, they just plan to buy everything.
There are more ways to build an empire than just martial conquest.
spat
.700 Nitro Express
Whichever is in our interest to back.
I would use leverage as an ally to both of them to try and have them work out a resolution before anyone else got dragged into it. I wouldn't want my allies fighting each other, ultimately it weakens your own interests if your allies strength became degraded, they become less useful to you.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
So just fuck your Other allie?
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Forgive my Grammer I'm on the phone
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Would you provide military aid, airstrikes?
No. I wouldn't participate in my allies fighting each other. I would get them to try and work out a peace agreement.
Example, Australia and New Zealand are fighting, I have them try to work out a peace agreement.
stokes
.338 Win Mag
Exactly. Fuck em
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
That only works once. The credibility of the US as an allie will be in the trash.
stokes
.338 Win Mag
We dont have "allies" we have subordinate nation partners.
spat
.700 Nitro Express
Lol, countries are not friends.
Alliances only last as long as both sides see a benefit.
JaguarJaguarGolf
6.5 Creedmoor
China wants Australia. They want the entire Pacific. More than 50 commercial flights in and around Australia had to be rerouted in the past few months because of China conducting live fire naval exercises all around the perimeter of Australia.