Things are heating up in the Donbass

[holdover]

A minimal Ukrainian victory would be restoration of the pre-war borders.

I see that as impossible because it would require the defeat of the entire Russian military. Under no circumstances would Russia except NATO on its border , thats why the war was started to begin with. the entire Russian military would have be defeated in the field . I cant see that happening.

Before the war began Putin told Ukraine to honor the Maiden agreement and stay neutral or we will be forced to attack.

the only way I can see Ukraine winning is an economic collaspe of some kind . possibly the removal of Putin , and maybe a break up of Russia into several states , but its hard for me to envision a battle field win when the Russians are just amping up the engines now.
If thier great spring or summer offense fails, then maybe I can see them trying to keep what they have and try to settle

 

[spat]

As bloody as this war is, it pales in comparsion to WW2. A hundred thousand soviets captured after the first few weeks of Barbrarosa in one pocket alone! Millions dead by the end of the first year. Millions, let that number sink in, barely even 10% .

They invaded Ukraine with a peace time army, it wasnt enough. but it aint over either. right now, every Russian manufacturing company is producing war materiel. 24 hours a day 7 days a week. Ukraine is producing jack shit . and if you think the demographics in Russia willbe bad, Ukraine will be a lot worse.

If Russia wins It will have pretty much destroyed Ukraine and own everything up to the dniper river ( I dont think they will go further unless they have to.)

If you look at the map of Ukraine they hardly have any armor units left. 50 Bradleys arnt going to do it.

thier artillery has been getting smashed and now the Russians are focusing on their air defense if they can attrit it enough it open up the air game to the Russians , even locally . Ukraine has infantry but Russia has more. (Not in theater )

Russia cant quit. and they sure are not going to surrender to Ukraine . What it comes down to is which side will be ground down first , The Ukraine army or the Russian economy.

Ukraine doesn't have shit left right now , the Russian economy is doing Ok for the moment

Im curious, what do you think a Ukrainian victory would look like?

I think *winning* this war would be worse for Russia than losing it at this point.

The *last* thing they need is to annex the burning wreckage if the Ukraine.

That would make all their current problems even worse.

And again, you cannot remotely compare the WWII Soviet Union to today's Russia. They are not the same, any more than the WWII UK is the same as today's.

 

[tirwin1]

I see that as impossible because it would require the defeat of the entire Russian military. Under no circumstances would Russia except NATO on its border , thats why the war was started to begin with. the entire Russian military would have be defeated in the field . I cant see that happening.

Before the war began Putin told Ukraine to honor the Maiden agreement and stay neutral or we will be forced to attack.

the only way I can see Ukraine winning is an economic collaspe of some kind . possibly the removal of Putin , and maybe a break up of Russia into several states , but its hard for me to envision a battle field win when the Russians are just amping up the engines now.
If thier great spring or summer offense fails, then maybe I can see them trying to keep what they have and try to settle

That's why I think a Korean war type ending is a possibility. Ukraine can never win on its own. We seem hell bent on providing just enough equipment and intelligence to repel a russian invasion but not enough to help them win. Putin has backed himself into a corner. He couldn't stop even if he wanted to because he's bet the ranch on this working. I don't see the russians ever accepting a peace that does not include annexation of most (or all) of ukraine. But if they suffer so many casualties that a successful invasion is unlikely I still don't think they would conduct peace negotiations. They might agree to a cease fire that just goes on and on without an actual peace treaty.

Some people predict a huge winter offensive. Others say it won't come until the spring of this year. I don't know who is correct but it is going to happen at some point in the near future.

 

[Defilade]

 

[spat]

I see that as impossible because it would require the defeat of the entire Russian military. Under no circumstances would Russia except NATO on its border , thats why the war was started to begin with. the entire Russian military would have be defeated in the field . I cant see that happening.

Before the war began Putin told Ukraine to honor the Maiden agreement and stay neutral or we will be forced to attack.

the only way I can see Ukraine winning is an economic collaspe of some kind . possibly the removal of Putin , and maybe a break up of Russia into several states , but its hard for me to envision a battle field win when the Russians are just amping up the engines now.
If thier great spring or summer offense fails, then maybe I can see them trying to keep what they have and try to settle

Or the collapse of the Russian government.

I think Putin knows he personally won't survive losing this war.

He might drag the whole thing down trying to keep himself afloat.

Or he might take a long walk out a 5th floor window if enough people don't want to follow him in that collapse.

Do not make the mistake of assuming Russia makes it out if this intact.

 

[holdover]

They can openly lie because they know nothing will happen . They answer to to those who pay them. themselves and the seats they hold, are up for auction. We use to call them whores, now we just call them politicians. they are narcissistic sociopaths by definition.

I honestly dont believe they are capable of doing good for anyone except if it benefits them or done by accident. Even the Mafia had standards bylaws and rules that you dont break under penalty of death. these guys have less morals than the mob

 

[holdover]

Or the collapse of the Russian government.

I think Putin knows he personally won't survive losing this war.

He might drag the whole thing down trying to keep himself afloat.

Or he might take a long walk out a 5th floor window if enough people don't want to follow him in that collapse.

Do not make the mistake of assuming Russia makes it out if this intact.

I mostly agree, except I think Russia wins.

 

[spat]

I mostly agree, except I think Russia wins.

The only way that happens is if NATO decides to stop supporting Ukraine.

Right now there are a lot of powerful people making a lot of money off the war, so I don’t see that happening.

 

[holdover]

The only way that happens is if NATO decides to stop supporting Ukraine.

Right now there are a lot of powerful people making a lot of money off the war, so I don’t see that happening.

Its not all up to them ya know. the enemy always get a vote.

 

[GOPerfect]

I just think it is rather funny that there are so many that think the Ukraine is winning this conflict.

I wonder how many more dead civilians there will be before their useless government realizes that they cannot win.

 

[spat]

Its not all up to them ya know. the enemy always get a vote.

Russia may get one vote.

But Raytheon, Lockheed, general dynamics, and about 5 dozen more including half the legislators in the US also get votes. As long as they are making money Ukraine will get just enough to hold off the Russians.

It doesn't matter how much they need, they will get *just* enough.

If they start running out of Ukranians, they'll get a
Half a million a body to hire mercs (plus 20% for the big guy). Whatever it takes.

 

[spat]

I just think it is rather funny that there are so many that think the Ukraine is winning this conflict.

I wonder how many more dead civilians there will be before their useless government realizes that they cannot win.

The only ones winning this are defense contractors and the guys getting the kickbacks.

No way Russia or Ukraine comes out of this with anything remotely resembling a win.

Both will be lucky to survive.

 

[GOPerfect]

The only ones winning this are defense contractors and the guys getting the kickbacks.

No way Russia or Ukraine comes out of this with anything remotely resembling a win.

Both will be lucky to survive.

We can agree to disagree.

I will agree that contractors are making fat bank, all wars and conflicts they do.

 

[spat]

We can agree to disagree.

I will agree that contractors are making fat bank, all wars and conflicts they do.

At this point even if the Ukrainians threw down their weapons and ran for the border there is no way Russia ends up better off than they were a year ago.




They lost last spring, the only question is how badly, and they just keep doubling down.

 

[GOPerfect]

At this point even if the Ukrainians threw down their weapons and ran for the border there is no way Russia ends up better off than they were a year ago.




They lost last spring, the only question is how badly, and they just keep doubling down.

Honest question.

When you say they have lost, how exactly is that?

 

[spat]

Honest question.

When you say they have lost, how exactly is that?

There is no way they end up better off than they were prior to the invasion.

Even if they eventually acquire 100% of the Ukrainian territory, they will have still lost.

 

[GOPerfect]

There is no way they end up better off than they were prior to the invasion.

Even if they eventually acquire 100% of the Ukrainian territory, they will have still lost.

Not being difficult, how will they not be better off?

 

[spat]

Not being difficult, how will they not be better off?

They will have lost hundreds of thousands of men.

Massive amounts of equipment.

Tons of trade relationships.

And most importantly, they lost a lot of respect internationally. Their military used to be feared, and now even if they win, they will not be. They will be the butt of jokes for decades.

Their arms industry is going to be decimated.
It is largely built on exports funding their development, after their showing in Ukraine nobody will want to buy their crap.

They will need to spend money they don't have to rebuild a country they just destroyed that is populated by people that hate them.

And what will they have gained ? Some land ? Is that something Russia was running short on ?

 

[GOPerfect]

The loss of men, means nothing to the Country or the people. The individual families? Yes.

So far, most of the equipment has been old and very well used.

This lack of fear of their military? Who cares? Is some other Nation going to ever attack them? Nope. So that does not matter.

North Korea and Iran is still buying, so are many other Nations, to this day.

As for funding, they have more than enough. Hell, they are better off than nearly every Country in Europe and are holding their own just fine.

 

[Mosinitis]

As it stands Russia has gained land corridor and fresh water supply to Crimea. The Sea of Azov are now Russia's internal waters. Russia also gained economic independence from the West through ineffectiveness of economic sanctions to collapse Russian economy.

 

[spat]

The loss of men, means nothing to the Country or the people. The individual families? Yes.

So far, most of the equipment has been old and very well used.

This lack of fear of their military? Who cares? Is some other Nation going to ever attack them? Nope. So that does not matter.

North Korea and Iran is still buying, so are many other Nations, to this day.

As for funding, they have more than enough. Hell, they are better off than nearly every Country in Europe and are holding their own just fine.

Are you kidding ?

Russia is buying crap *back* from N Korea and Iran for this.

Yea, the equipment they are losing was all old crap. That's all they have, and they can't replace it with anything new.

I guess we will find out which one of us is right.

How long do you think before we know ?

 

[Mosinitis]

Russia is winning the battle for Soledar. Ukraine will have to retreat from Bakhmut or risk encirclement.

Wagner group claims full control of Soledar

The key Donbass town of Soledar is fully controlled by Russian PMC Wagner, after weeks of heavy urban combat

www.rt.com

 

[tgenec86]

I guess for every article promoting how well Russia is doing, there's another speculating on how poorly they are doing. Artillery rate of fire down by as much as 75%:

From Strength To Vulnerability: The Decline Of Russian Artillery In The Ukraine War

The lack of training and experience, particularly by Russian officers, has led to the overuse of artillery. The Ukrainians have successfully exploited this issue, turning what should be a large Russian strength into one of their largest vulnerabilities.

www.forbes.com

So which is it? Are they just tapering off in preparation for a major offensive? Does this chair make my butt look big? Most information is either biased, or straight up dis-information. Time will be the final arbitor.

 

[Mosinitis]

I guess for every article promoting how well Russia is doing, there's another speculating on how poorly they are doing. Artillery rate of fire down by as much as 75%:

From Strength To Vulnerability: The Decline Of Russian Artillery In The Ukraine War

The lack of training and experience, particularly by Russian officers, has led to the overuse of artillery. The Ukrainians have successfully exploited this issue, turning what should be a large Russian strength into one of their largest vulnerabilities.

www.forbes.com

So which is it? Are they just tapering off in preparation for a major offensive? Does this chair make my butt look big? Most information is either biased, or straight up dis-information. Time will be the final arbitor.

Control of the territory is hard to lie about. When Russian and European media report the same thing, then that's it.
U.S. media and pundits suck ass. They are quick to proclaim Ukrainian victory and Russian defeat. Wishful thinking.

 

[holdover]

I guess for every article promoting how well Russia is doing, there's another speculating on how poorly they are doing. Artillery rate of fire down by as much as 75%:

From Strength To Vulnerability: The Decline Of Russian Artillery In The Ukraine War

The lack of training and experience, particularly by Russian officers, has led to the overuse of artillery. The Ukrainians have successfully exploited this issue, turning what should be a large Russian strength into one of their largest vulnerabilities.

www.forbes.com

So which is it? Are they just tapering off in preparation for a major offensive? Does this chair make my butt look big? Most information is either biased, or straight up dis-information. Time will be the final arbitor.

Both sides have to lie for various reasons , All we can really gleen is generalities . the maps can tell you what is happening generally, but good reliable details are hard to discern. the main stream media is/has always been full of shit Its nothing more than a branch of government

the same media that told us covid would kill millions , the vaccines are safe and effective are saying Russia cant win, like they said russia is running out of missiles in sept. Snake island heros ghost of kiev, Russia is useing t34 tanks . the media is bullshit .

its very difficult to tell whats happening on the ground except that both sides admit to heavy fighting

 

[Mosinitis]

 

[Mosinitis]

There is no doubt in my mind two British "volanteers" in Telegraph video were there to evacuate civilians. They came all the way from Britain just for that, no one in Ukraine can do it even without language barrier.

 

[spat]

Both sides have to lie for various reasons , All we can really gleen is generalities . the maps can tell you what is happening generally, but good reliable details are hard to discern. the main stream media is/has always been full of shit Its nothing more than a branch of government

the same media that told us covid would kill millions , the vaccines are safe and effective are saying Russia cant win, like they said russia is running out of missiles in sept. Snake island heros ghost of kiev, Russia is useing t34 tanks . the media is bullshit .

its very difficult to tell whats happening on the ground except that both sides admit to heavy fighting

The fact remains, we are coming up on a year of the 2 week "special military operation" and Putin is still not dining in Kiev.

Reminds me of the 2 weeks it took to flatten the curve.

 

[Mosinitis]

Even U.S. media now admits the momentum is on the Russian side. Russian military breeched fortified Ukrainian lines in Donbas. This is something they weren't able to do until now. I have no idea how Patriot Missiles battery would have stopped this, but it's $$$$$$$$$ for military-industrial complex. The only territory Ukraine was able to recapture was when the Russians packed up and left to better defensive positions. All major head to head battles end with Russian victory. There is still a Russian/Belorussian invasion force on stand by if and when needed.

Low level Ukrainian and Russian officials are conducting humanitarian negotiations in Turkey to facilitate prisoner exchanges and lower civilian casualties.

 

[Mosinitis]

Sean Penn, Zelensky and Golden Globe Awards.