The Feds Are Studying How Fast The Grid Could Bounce Back After A Cyberattack

[livingston]

The Feds Are Studying How Fast The Grid Could Bounce Back After A Cyberattack
The Trump administration is vetting the electric grid’s ability to quickly bounce back from a massive cyberattack amid speculation Russian agents have been targeting U.S. power plants.

Officials at the Department of Energy are crafting an exercise called “Liberty Eclipse” to “simulate the painstaking process of re-energizing the power grid while squaring off against simultaneous cyberattack,” E&E News wrote in an Aug. 3 report. The exercise will take place in November on Plum Island, a small island located in New York.

“It’s in our national security interest to continue to protect these sources of energy and to deliver them around the world,” Energy Secretary Rick Perry said at a cybersecurity conference in New York in early August. “Taking care of that infrastructure, from the standpoint of protecting it from cyberattacks — I don’t think it’s ever been more important than it is today.”

The exercise comes as natural gas production has taken up the primary source of energy production in the U.S. The increase in natural gas-fired power generation has complicated reliability testing, according to grid reliability consultant David Hilt.
More at....The Feds Are Studying How Fast The Grid Could Bounce Back After A Cyberattack

 

[BDinPutnam]

I have been to Infraguard seminars.

I was not impressed.

2003 blackout was caused by, ultimately- one tree falling on one line, in Ohio.

You can figure out where I'm going with this.

 

[livingston]

I have been to Infraguard seminars.

I was not impressed.

2003 blackout was caused by, ultimately- one tree falling on one line, in Ohio.

You can figure out where I'm going with this.

Yes ,.. Cyber warfare , EMP, social unrest, storms and squirrels can disrupt our electrical grid and we are very unprepared for any of it. Want to disrupt American society ... Shut down the power grid .. 100 degrees in Florida with no refrigeration or air conditioning Wait a week and see how happy folks are .. .. Power lines all across this country and no way of protecting them from an attack

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Google the Metcalf substation attack.

Our grid is vulerable to cyber, kinetic, weather, CME, EMP, nature, bad luck, operator error, etc

 

[Deplorable Me]

We have practice drills, Thanksgiving at my house.

 

[Deplorable Me]

 

[Steal2B]

I am still amazed how many articles and press releases on this and similar subjects are either misinformed, intentional propaganda (maybe as a diversion), or a scheme to solicit more money / funding. It is damn near impossible for a layman or an honest politician (is that an oxymoron?) to sort out accurate information and it is often illegal for professionals to share accurate information. On one hand there are some serious liabilities, which are seldom discussed, that would be SHTF catastrophic with recovery taking years to recover due to the modern supply chain practices and the tax practices (most introduced by Wee Willie Clinton others introduced by politically appointed bureaucrats) in this country that make inventories and spare parts a financial liability or a "public service" prohibition. On the other hand, much of our aged infrastructure was not "modernized" and the vulnerabilities are exaggerated, technically impossible or improbable (sometimes boardering on a hoax.) My worry is that some serious investment is warranted for certain issues but much of the squeaking for our dollars in Washington DC is for unneccessary priorities and boondoggles likely sourced by lobbyists and certain profit centers. I am not sure how we can prevent being fleeced and I have no trust in lobbyists soliciting spending.

Disclaimer: I can not legally share certain specific information related to power generation / distribution costs or vulnerabilities. Even when testifying under oath in a judiciary setting, my legal counsel spent considerable time re-briefing me of protected boundaries.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

I am still amazed how many articles and press releases on this and similar subjects are either misinformed, intentional propaganda (maybe as a diversion), or a scheme to solicit more money / funding. It is damn near impossible for a layman or an honest politician (is that an oxymoron?) to sort out accurate information and it is often illegal for professionals to share accurate information. On one hand there are some serious liabilities, which are seldom discussed, that would be SHTF catastrophic with recovery taking years to recover due to the modern supply chain practices and the tax practices (most introduced by Wee Willie Clinton others introduced by politically appointed bureaucrats) in this country that make inventories and spare parts a financial liability or a "public service" prohibition. On the other hand, much of our aged infrastructure was not "modernized" and the vulnerabilities are exaggerated, technically impossible or improbable (sometimes boardering on a hoax.) My worry is that some serious investment is warranted for certain issues but much of the squeaking for our dollars in Washington DC is for unneccessary priorities and boondoggles likely sourced by lobbyists and certain profit centers. I am not sure how we can prevent being fleeced and I have no trust in lobbyists soliciting spending.

Disclaimer: I can not legally share certain specific information related to power generation / distribution costs or vulnerabilities. Even when testifying under oath in a judiciary setting, my legal counsel spent considerable time re-briefing me of protected boundaries.

Since you seem to be speaking frm direct industry experience and knowledge...

Have you read ted Koppels book lights out? If so what are your thoughts on it? Is his assement accurate?

 

[livingston]

Since you seem to be speaking frm direct industry experience and knowledge...

Have you read ted Koppels book lights out? If so what are your thoughts on it? Is his assement accurate?

Or is perhaps a book out there that could enlighten the average reader with something close to the truth ?

 

[Steal2B]

I only glanced at the book. I shook my head and put it down. Although the review in Forbes was also somewhat technically weak, the one statement that was gnat's ass on was ...
"The style is elegant, the narrative is carefully crafted and the prose is easy to read. The problem is substance. There is not much of it. Still worse, what little it has is misleading and ill-informed."

 

[BDinPutnam]

Fwiw I agree with you. Without going into areas I agree are out of bounds, it is (or should be) known that industrial controls are hard to hack. I have/had other concerns, mostly related to focus and use of resources.

 

[Steal2B]

Or is perhaps a book out there that could enlighten the average reader with something close to the truth ?

Good question. Off the top of my head I can not think of a well written, accurate, book that fully covers the topics we discuss. Rather than recommending a shelf full of reference books filled with PRA data, calculations, footnotes, and each narrowly focused, let me go look.

In the mean time I will say that the most accurate sources in public domain are likely 1) sworn testimony by utilities given in hearings, rate cases, and trials since they want to be indemnified from a catastrophy and 2) regulatory required Safety Analysis and reports used for permitting, licensing, etc. since they are technically and legally screened for accuracy in a potentially punitive environment and 3) Certain compilations prepared for politicians by informed technical groups that do not stand to profit from the document, or its conclusions or recommendations. (This would not be an attempt for a shocking best seller.)

I'll see if I can dig up some links or find a synopsis based on solid research. If I get a chance before the fall I'll ask some DC staffers if they found a good package for their bosses which could be shared or if they can reference a good one-stop book I can check out. Hopefully it will not take too long but I gotta squeeze some time for a short term consulting contract in my already honey do list filled schedule.

In a short, crude, readers digest summary .... low probability but credible events (that can yield widespread long term grid catastrophies) involve unpreventable natural events (e.g. solar) or a massive nuclear holocaust. Lesser extended regional loss of power events are quite probable from smaller natural catastrophies (e.g. storms, volcanic, seismic) or a statistically less likely strategic EMP attack. It is true an unintended consequence of modernizing our infrastructure is the increased localized or regional risks associated with impacts on some solid state sub components and poorly thought out processing controls but the reality is not as widespread as the novels predict, in part because there is more human interface, more automation by-passed and more analog equipment still in service nationwide than in the fairy tales. One of the scariest facts in many published scenerios is quite true and the long term recovery of the full grid would be artificially extended because there are few key dedicated high capacity spare parts and these are shared between utilities and nations. As Forbes reviewer to Koppel's book discussed, one point often ignored in shock books is that the capabilities for pockets of recovery, alternate emergency sources, and population evacuation / relocation, although difficult / ill prepared / time consuming, is essentially discounted.

In New York State being prepared or self sufficient for extended outages is not a waste of time in that storms (e.g. Tropical, Winter, tornados, flooding, etc) with impacts on electrical service WILL happen and it is an eventual statistical probability that an outage can be regionally more widespread or more lengthy than any that we have endured to date.

 

[BDinPutnam]

Nice write up, @Steal2B, thanks for it.

 

[JaguarJaguarGolf]

I have been to Infraguard seminars.

I was not impressed.

2003 blackout was caused by, ultimately- one tree falling on one line, in Ohio.

You can figure out where I'm going with this.

I thought it was me messing with the pool pump!

 

[Acer-m14]

how long were we we out from the ICE Storm in the 90's .. where i was was like 2 weeks .. .. but my family and i know how to camp and get resourceful ..
omg you have power .. did you not here the 72 duster generator running .. 12 volt lights .. some cables to the car while its just purring in the drive ..
wood stove going and Coleman camp gear out

Nice write up, @Steal2B, thanks for it.

only the libs that want all for free are the ones that will loose ..

liberal arts major will kill you fast if the grid goes down

 

[BDinPutnam]

liberal arts major will kill you fast if the grid goes down

Eh, I dunno.

I have a BA in English Lit.

 

[Steal2B]

Eh, I dunno.

I have a BA in English Lit.

Never would have pegged you as one of those. You are another proud first rate BSer in life by my reckoning.

 

[GOPerfect]

It really amazes me how much really bad information there is in regards to a serious Power Outage.

Even those that are tasked to be the experts get so much wrong and give out less than truthful facts and figures.

I am no expert, far from it; sometimes though, it seems like I know more than these highly educated experts.

And for the record, if all power goes down for an extended period of time, it is not the power failure that will be our undoing, it will be the severe panic of the people.

 

[That_FNG]

It really amazes me how much really bad information there is in regards to a serious Power Outage.

Even those that are tasked to be the experts get so much wrong and give out less than truthful facts and figures.

I am no expert, far from it; sometimes though, it seems like I know more than these highly educated experts.

And for the record, if all power goes down for an extended period of time, it is not the power failure that will be our undoing, it will be the severe panic of the people.

Reminds me of the book "The Postman" where it was not the disasters that lead to the collapse of society but the citizens themselves.

 

[Phauxtoe]

We have practice drills, Thanksgiving at my house.

see you MUST put the sand bags Inside or you mark your house as a target to explore!

 

[tirwin1]

Disclaimer: I can not legally share certain specific information related to power generation / distribution costs or vulnerabilities. Even when testifying under oath in a judiciary setting, my legal counsel spent considerable time re-briefing me of protected boundaries.

Holy shit.

 

[Deplorable Me]

see you MUST put the sand bags Inside or you mark your house as a target to explore!

That's a secondary wall. If I get them inside the moat, they ain't leaving.

 

[Robin]

I have one of those crank generated radios with multiple bands. At least I can listen in on the chaos.
Robin

 

[Deplorable Me]

I have one of those crank generated radios with multiple bands. At least I can listen in on the chaos.
Robin

That assumes someone is broadcasting.

I'm moving my reloading press to the first floor bay window.

 

[Robin]

There will always be at least one HAM out there giving the lowdown, and probably thousands with equipment, without license, at the ready.

 

[Shadow2]

WHY THE FUCK IS OUR GRID ONLINE? Their is no logical reason why a power grind needs to be wired to the web. Local closed network is all that's needed.

 

[Steal2B]

WHY THE FUCK IS OUR GRID ONLINE? Their is no logical reason why a power grind needs to be wired to the web. Local closed network is all that's needed.

It isn't. The issue discussed was a check of natural gas production and supply which feeds gas fired boilers and gas turbines that generate power ultimately distributed on the grid. Gas fired units have become a significant portion of our generation as they replaced most oil fired units, most coal fed units, a growing number of prematurely retired nuclear units, a suprising population of hydro units retired for eco activists or deferred maitenance, and even supplementing solar / wind farms that under-performed.

 

[HIghlander]

There will always be at least one HAM out there giving the lowdown, and probably thousands with equipment, without license, at the ready.

I have my Ham license and 2 HT radios for 2 meter and 70 cm bands. not much but better than nothing.

 

[Truebeliever]

I don’t think most people realize that a state sponsored cypher attack could be worse than an EMP.

Remember the suxnet virus that took out the Iranian Nuclear program for a few years? It caused centrifuges to run out of control and explode. Remember the explosion of the gas line in MA . Cypher attacks not only could take down the grid but overpressure gas lines, exploding residental homes as well as industrial areas. It could send surges in the power grid that would take out the major transformers .

This is not including internet dependent systems. Remember the Iranian program was a closed loop like many of our utilities are.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

I don’t think most people realize that a state sponsored cypher attack could be worse than an EMP.

Remember the suxnet virus that took out the Iranian Nuclear program for a few years? It caused centrifuges to run out of control and explode. Remember the explosion of the gas line in MA . Cypher attacks not only could take down the grid but overpressure gas lines, exploding residental homes as well as industrial areas. It could send surges in the power grid that would take out the major transformers .

This is not including internet dependent systems. Remember the Iranian program was a closed loop like many of our utilities are.

There are people out there who are intelligent, creative, imaginative, they think outside the box, have a lot of anger, hatred and are consumed by evil..

The point is that on september 10th 2001 no one would have thought twice about box cutters and airliners.


At some point in the future they will look back and say something similar again about the grid.

"No one thought the grid, SCADA systems, flying drones, cars with satellite uplink, smart phones or the internet could be weaponized to do XYZ"