Things are heating up in the Donbass

Drinkthekoolaid said:

Here's the thing...

If we didn't already have at least 2 Ohio class ssbns within launch range of Russia, the Navy has not performed their duties. We should probably have a minimum of 2-3 on patrol at all times within range of Russia. Essentially we're talking if we have our boomers anywhere in the northern hemisphere they are likely in range of striking Russia. So this whole Trump tweet is actually concerning to me and not for the obvious reason but the subtle reason. Either we didn't actually have a genuine deterrent out to sea on patrol, they weren't within striking range of Russia (which is essentially the same as not being out on patrol) both options mean the navy is not fulfill their role in the strategic deterence triad, or that they've been so gutted over the previous 8 years or Biden wokeism. Perhaps Trump just didn't know we have boomers on alert 24/7/365 and that's also concerning.

Or, we already have our standard deterence patrols in place And we essentially just doubled them to ~5 boomers in position. That's concerning because Russia may very well perceive this as a genuine threat of the US intending on launching an unprovoked preemptive first strike because it deviates so far from the baseline.


All these theories are concerning but for very different reasons.

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I doubt the Trump order actually changed any operational details of any SSBNs.

I expect it just made some public that are normally highly classified.

It's the equivalent of the guy pulling back his suit jacked to show his CCW.

So, some more detail.

While we have 18 Ohios currently operational, 4 of them have been converted to SSGNs for conventional attack using Tomahawks.

It could be that 2 of *those* are what Trump redirected, so we have more conventional assets available in the area.

But, the order is really just sabre rattling. We maintain the ability to obliterate the Russian military 24/7/365. They occasionally need to be reminded of that is all.

Now, of the remaining 14 SSBNs, it likely that only 4 or 5 are actually deployed at any given time. Another 4 or 5 will be back in port being re-supplied for the next deployment, and the remaining ones in port for more complex maintenance that keeps them out of service for a longer period.

I expect that we have at least 2 deployed targeting Russia at all times minimum. One for the east and one for the west. And probably one or two babysitting China and the remainder keeping watch over the middle east.

A single Ohio SSBN can carry up to 24 Trident 2 missiles with up to 12 MIRV warheads each.

That's 288 independently targetable 90kt warheads.

A more typical load is only 20 Tridents, with probably fewer warheads (fewer warheads increases the range of a Trident, from 4500 miles fully loaded to about 7500 miles downloaded to 3 warheads).

holdover said:

No you dont seem to get it, It wasnt about the valuable land , thats all bonus for them . not the main objective . Ukraine took the risk to join NATO despite the fact That would mean war with Russia , they threw the dice , they knew the risks , Maybe they felt Russia was in no position to invade which wasnt far off the mark, Maybe they figured, with the well equipped NATO trained military they could beat them back to previous borders, maybe they were told NATO would come in on thier behalf and didnt. Maybe they figured Putin would be forced to back down altogether.

In any case, they understand the mistake now .

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holdover said:

Obviously so, the difference was that 1, Russia has said it would mean war for 30 years, 2 Ukraine was allowed to seperate under the condition that it remain nuetral, it was Ukraine that knowingly violated that agreement , they are in breech of contract which makes that contract void and gives legal rights to Russia to reclaim the land under violation of contract .

Number 2, Ukraine had already been a part of the soviet union since the 1920s , all through the cold war NATO didnt have an Issue with Ukraine being a part of the soviet Union , now its suddenly a problem , and unacceptable. where the fuck does NATO get off telling these people what they should can or cant do? This is basicly more of a civil war than land grab .

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Oh, Ukraine was "allowed" to separate ?

The Soviet Union was *not* Russia. Russia needs to get it out of their fucking head that they have some claim over the other former republics.

If the United States broke up, and California decided they owned Arizona and Nevada because they also used to be states, we would rightly tell them to fuck off.

*This* is what you just don't get. That was never Russia's call to make.

Ukraine should have never given up *their* nukes. Russia promised to respect their sovereignty in exchange for that. Obviously trusting them was a mistake.

The US and UK promised to guarantee their defense under the same agreement. We are not honoring that either. If we were honoring our obligations under the Budapest memorandum, the only thing Russian in the Donbass right now would be graves.

And threatening something for 30 years doesn't suddenly mean it's justified.

France had a lot more than 30 years warning of a German Invasion. That doesn't mean the Germans were justified in WWII.

The Soviet Union *ceased to exist* in 1991. Russia and Ukraine were both just equals at that point. Russia doesn't get to decide who can or cannot leave. when the Soviet Union broke up, all the republics were expelled from it. Russia doesn't have *any* claim over any of them.

Its not over til the putin blow job sings!

Robinoinovich

Just curious how it would be viewed here if China or Russia or some hypothetical quasi-BRICS hostile military alliance was trying to setup shop in Quebec and Ontario and maybe Mexico.

Would the US just sit back and say cool, no problem set up hostile forces within easy striking distance of our borders? Or would the US forcibly prevent that situation from occurred?

It's easy to judge from afar. But make the situation more personal to what you can relate to. I certainly wouldn't want a hostile alliance to the US who's purpose is to contain America operating in any strength or capacity directly on our borders by subverting our neighbors into gaining a foothold there.

If some brics military alliance led by China was trying to get Mexico or Canada on board to join their alliance, we wouldn't allow that to happen. So for us to sit back and judge Russia for doing the same thing we would likely do is a bit hypocritical.

And I'm not insensitive to the Ukrainian people. I feel for them. It sucks. Their country is being destroyed, their families will be ruined and have experienced much pain and suffering. Their demographics are now ruined for a generation. In fact, I think the west is the bad guys here. I think we are using Ukrainian blood as unwitting mercenaries to fight Russia on behalf of NATO to try to weaken Russia the same way we did with Afghanistan in the 80s. Morally, I don't like it at all that many in the US are cheering this on. I think the most pragmatic ethical thing is to sue for peace ASAP and save what is still left to be salvageable.

Drinkthekoolaid said:

Just curious how it would be viewed here if China or Russia or some hypothetical quasi-BRICS hostile military alliance was trying to setup shop in Quebec and Ontario and maybe Mexico.

Would the US just sit back and say cool, no problem set up hostile forces within easy striking distance of our borders? Or would the US forcibly prevent that situation from occurred?

It's easy to judge from afar. But make the situation more personal to what you can relate to. I certainly wouldn't want a hostile alliance to the US who's purpose is to contain America operating in any strength or capacity directly on our borders by subverting our neighbors into gaining a foothold there.

If some brics military alliance led by China was trying to get Mexico or Canada on board to join their alliance, we wouldn't allow that to happen. So for us to sit back and judge Russia for doing the same thing we would likely do is a bit hypocritical.

And I'm not insensitive to the Ukrainian people. I feel for them. It sucks. Their country is being destroyed, their families will be ruined and have experienced much pain and suffering. Their demographics are now ruined for a generation. In fact, I think the west is the bad guys here. I think we are using Ukrainian blood as unwitting mercenaries to fight Russia on behalf of NATO to try to weaken Russia the same way we did with Afghanistan in the 80s. Morally, I don't like it at all that many in the US are cheering this on. I think the most pragmatic ethical thing is to sue for peace ASAP and save what is still left to be salvageable.

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You mean if China was doing exactly what they're doing now in Canada and half the college campuses in the US ?

You think we'd invade Mexico ?

Now, I can see us pulling some CIA backdoor bay of pigs bullshit, but what Russia has done is the equivalent of sending in a full on USMC amphibious landing into Cuba when the bay of pigs failed.

And I'd like to remind you that this is not the height of the cold war, and nobody was talking about putting nuclear missiles in Ukraine.

Imagine if Finland said "it's unacceptable to have Russia right on our doorstep" and then proceeded to send in NATO troops to occupy a few hundred miles of Russia ?

Would it matter if Finland threatened that for 30 years first ?

Not sure how much difference they will make, but I can say with certainty that there will be quite a few of these delivered to the Ukraine over the next year.

Drinkthekoolaid said:

This story may, or may not be accurate

Ukraine War: British Officers Captured in Russian Special Forces Raid

Ochakov, Ukraine (Agencies) August 2, 2025 — In a dramatic escalation of covert hostilities, Russian special forces reportedly executed a lightning-fast operation in the Ukrainian coastal city of Ochakov, capturing three senior British military personnel allegedly involved in coordinating drone...

www.thekhybermail.com

If it's accurate it will be worth keeping an eye on.

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More sources are reporting this story and it's not being denied by either side. There are actual names and faces that go with it, which makes it credible.

Russians knew about it all along, now they obtained evidence of NATO's direct involvement. This will be used during ongoing negotiations.

Not just non-NATO status for Ukraine, but a ban on NATO or other hostile foreign forces in any capacity on Ukrainian territory is a part of Russia's demands.

Russian position is based on facts and supported by hard evidence. Unlike hollow drivel that is coming from the West.

spat said:

The Soviet Union was *not* Russia. Russia needs to get it out of their fucking head that they have some claim over the other former republics.

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Actually Soviet Union almost entirely was sitting on the territory of pre-Soviet Russia.

Mosinitis said:

Actually Soviet Union almost entirely was sitting on the territory of pre-Soviet Russia.

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And almost all of that territory is now post Soviet Russia.

But, it's the almost that we're discussing.

You know, Mongolia used to cover a ton of what is today Russia. How many years warning do they need to give before they just get to take it back ?

Where have I seen this movie before?

spat said:

And almost all of that territory is now post Soviet Russia.

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False. Soviet Union was much smaller than pre-Soviet Russia and post-Soviet Russia is much smaller than Soviet Union. Significant loss of the territory at every stage.

The quality of air is so bad that people are dying! All due to Canadas' inability tp, or purposefully not putting out their fires, C'mon its been three years!!!! I say we invade!
Robin

Putin's daughter speaks out against the war.

"alleged secret daughter"

"believed to be Putin’s youngest daughter"

I wouldn't even wipe my ass with NY Post. Neocon tabloid.

holdover said:

Thats correct, If your neighbor says he will shoot you in the head if ever catches you in his yard and you go in his yard and he shoots you, IS he justified because he warned you 100 times? No Of course not , WHy the fuck would you go into his yard? Yes he is going to jail for murder. But it was you who put yourself in that position , you ignored the warnings And now your dead,

The justification for russia was /has always been national security derived from enemy forces on her border, thats always been a trip wire for war , a red line that cannot be crossed as part of her own national policy. You may not agree with it, but it is what it is , thats how they roll. Ignore the warning at your own peril.

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And Russia has been warned over and over than their imperialist activities against their neighbors are unacceptable to the west.

So if Europe or NATO really get involved, then they have nobody to blame but themselves.

After the break up of the Soviet Union and with Internationally accepted 1991 Russia's borders, U.S. still continued a policy of breaking up what was left of Russia. U.S. and British governments supported separatist movements in Chechnya and Dagestan. There were even plans for break away of Tatarstan.

holdover said:

Thats correct, If your neighbor says he will shoot you in the head if ever catches you in his yard and you go in his yard and he shoots you, IS he justified because he warned you 100 times? No Of course not , WHy the fuck would you go into his yard? Yes he is going to jail for murder. But it was you who put yourself in that position , you ignored the warnings And now your dead,

The justification for russia was /has always been national security derived from enemy forces on her border, that's always been a trip wire for war , a red line that cannot be crossed as part of her own national policy. You may not agree with it, but it is what it is , that's how they roll. Ignore the warning at your own peril.

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Ukraine has sufficient technical and industrial ability, they could probably develop their own nuclear weapons pretty quickly.

Since basically everyone else has pulled out of the Budapest memorandum, and Ukraine *was* a nuclear power when the non-proliferation treaty was signed (and they probably didn't sign it anyway, since they were part of the USSR at the time), I'm not sure there's much of a real obstacle to them developing a new nuclear

Ukraine would certainly be justified in doing that I would think. They have a greater "national defense" justification right now than probably anyone else on the planet, since they are fighting an existential battle against a superior foreign invader *right now*.

And they already have HiMARS that they could probably mount warheads on easily enough.

Would be interesting to see what the Russian reaction would be to a successful test by Ukraine.