Things are heating up in the Donbass

[spat]

You can't serve 2 masters.

I always felt trump was very strong, because he was a billionaire and couldn't be bought.or maybe there are other ways of putting pressure on him
I don't know,.

He wanted to end the war in ukraine
Said he would end it 24 hours. I always understood that to mean all aid to Ukraine ends immediately, and Ukraine would be forced to surrender . But it never happened

Trump wants the international respect ending that war woild garner.

His ego is legendary, but in many ways justified. That would certainly be a major feather in his cap.

His MO is negotiating deals. He has both carrots and sticks he can use to bring Zelensky to the table, for Putin, it's mostly down to sticks.

But Putin is playing this stupidly. He thinks he can just demand whatever he wants and expect Trump to force Zelensky to accept it.

Trump knows a good deal, and he believes there is something to be worked out. But if Putin refuses to negotiate, then Trump will have to hit him with the stick until he changes his mind.

Whether that's a love tap with the stick, or the decimation of all Russian forces in Ukraine literally over night probably depends on how much attitude Putin cops.

 

[holdover]

Would Poland be justified invading Belarus because they want a "buffer zone" against Russia ?

If not, then why would Russia be justified in invading Ukraine ?

Sure would. but they have to deal with the consequences

Bottom line, NATO will not accept Russia in their border in Ukraine, and unlike Russia, NATO has the ability to stop that.

That would mean NATO attacking Russia or WW3 NATO wont do that.

Their military used to be respected on the world stage. Now it's a laughing stalk.

That laughing stock is pushing back a NATO trained and equipped army ,

But, their stated goal to "prevent NATO on their border" has failed miserably too. They have driven Finland into the arms of NATO. Even if they *did* take western Ukraine they'll *still* be worse off than they were.

not the way I see it

Putin's days are numbered, and the position he has built is not the sort of thing you retire peacefully from.

Dont agree with you there. Zelenski is living on borrowed time

 

[holdover]

Trump wants the international respect ending that war woild garner.

His ego is legendary, but in many ways justified. That would certainly be a major feather in his cap.

His MO is negotiating deals. He has both carrots and sticks he can use to bring Zelensky to the table, for Putin, it's mostly down to sticks.

But Putin is playing this stupidly. He thinks he can just demand whatever he wants and expect Trump to force Zelensky to accept it.

Trump knows a good deal, and he believes there is something to be worked out. But if Putin refuses to negotiate, then Trump will have to hit him with the stick until he changes his mind.

Whether that's a love tap with the stick, or the decimation of all Russian forces in Ukraine literally over night probably depends on how much attitude Putin cops.

Putin can care less what Trump demands , He knows an attack by NATO means nuclear war . Trump cant do jack squat.

 

[spat]

Putin can care less what Trump demands , He knows an attack by NATO means nuclear war . Trump cant do jack squat.

If we really believed Putin is going to start a nuclear war over losing some material in Ukraine, then the only answer is to eliminate his entire nuclear arsenal immediately.

We'd lose a few cities, but that is the least damage that's possible in that circumstance.

So, if you really believe Putin is a suicidal madman, then you kill him and his entire arsenal right fucking now.

If you think it's all bluster, then you negotiate.

Since we're negotiating, obviously Trump thinks the nuclear threats are bluffs.

 

[fresch]

Only Chi-na and others would jump in.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

This story may, or may not be accurate

Ukraine War: British Officers Captured in Russian Special Forces Raid

Ochakov, Ukraine (Agencies) August 2, 2025 — In a dramatic escalation of covert hostilities, Russian special forces reportedly executed a lightning-fast operation in the Ukrainian coastal city of Ochakov, capturing three senior British military personnel allegedly involved in coordinating drone...

www.thekhybermail.com

If it's accurate it will be worth keeping an eye on.

 

[holdover]

If we really believed Putin is going to start a nuclear war over losing some material in Ukraine, then the only answer is to eliminate his entire nuclear arsenal immediately.

We'd lose a few cities, but that is the least damage that's possible in that circumstance.

So, if you really believe Putin is a suicidal madman, then you kill him and his entire arsenal right fucking now.

WHAT? NATO entering the war against Russia makes Putin a mad man?? Its Russian doctrine, its exactly what they would do

We'd lose a few cities, but that is the least damage that's possible in that circumstance.

A few citys? Russia has around 6000 known nuclear warheads , but lets say We shoot down 5,900, (which we cant do since we have barely any missile defense for the country) that means 100 strikes on one hundred citys Killing the majority of the people in the US is a risk Only a mad man would take . Thats insane . and even if We stopped 100% of them aimed at us , We would lose Rome , Brussels Paris London , Madrid , Milan, Berlin Barcelona, Athens , to name a few, gone! in 1 hour. Europe in ashes . Not to mention all the Russian citys

that doesn't sound like a good option

If you think it's all bluster, then you negotiate.

Since we're negotiating, obviously Trump thinks the nuclear threats are bluffs

They thought threatening to invade Ukraine was all bluster too, They thought Russia was far to weak to enter Ukraine , far to weak to take take it if they did , they could break the Russian economy with sanctions and it didnt . Now your saying a nuclear war is winnable , not just winnable, but justified .

If trump thinks its all bluster and is willing to attack Russia on the hopes they dont retaliate and launch Nuclear weapons at the US , He should be immediately removed from office .

In what Universe would starting a nuclear war is in the best interests of the american people? Its fucking madness

 

[spat]

WHAT? NATO entering the war against Russia makes Putin a mad man?? Its Russian doctrine, its exactly what they would do


A few citys? Russia has around 6000 known nuclear warheads , but lets say We shoot down 5,900, (which we cant do since we have barely any missile defense for the country) that means 100 strikes on one hundred citys Killing the majority of the people in the US is a risk Only a mad man would take . Thats insane . and even if We stopped 100% of them aimed at us , We would lose Rome , Brussels Paris London , Madrid , Milan, Berlin Barcelona, Athens , to name a few, gone! in 1 hour. Europe in ashes . Not to mention all the Russian citys

that doesn't sound like a good option





They thought threatening to invade Ukraine was all bluster too, They thought Russia was far to weak to enter Ukraine , far to weak to take take it if they did , they could break the Russian economy with sanctions and it didnt . Now your saying a nuclear war is winnable , not just winnable, but justified .

If trump thinks its all bluster and is willing to attack Russia on the hopes they dont retaliate and launch Nuclear weapons at the US , He should be immediately removed from office .

In what Universe would starting a nuclear war is in the best interests of the american people? Its fucking madness

Russia has about 4300 warheads, but some of those are tactical and not strategic, and aren’t suitable for the sort of strike we are discussing.

And even the warheads that *are* a strategic type, they do not have delivery mechanisms for all of them.

Most are sitting stockpiled, not mounted in a missile.

Russian nuclear weapons, 2025 - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Russian nuclear weapons, 2025

To get to your 6000 figure, you gave to add in a bunch of expired warheads that are sitting around waiting to be dismantled, and then generously round up. Nuclear warheads have a shelf life. If they don't get rebuilt on a regular basis they simply do not work.

The actual number of warheads that they have in what they believe is a deployable condition is much smaller. Less than 900 on land and maybe 600 on subs.

Your reliance on the "6000 warheads" number shows how ill informed you are about the topic.


As for whether it makes sense to attack or not, it ultimately *does* just boil down to whether you believe they will use them or not.

If you think they will use them for anything short of an existential crisis, then you absolutely should nuke them right now, today. It is the best way to minimize the damage. Anything else just means you are giving them the first strike when it inevitably happens.

Because maybe you say "sacrificing Ukraine is worth it to avoid a nuclear war". But, if you're going to say that, then it's inevitable that Putin will, within a few years, decide Ukraine isn't enough and he wants something else. That's been proven over and over as he has gobbled up his neighbors one by one over the last couple decades.

Sooner or later he'll decide he wants something you aren't willing to sacrifice, and it will be all the worse when it happens.

It's the lead up to WWII all over again. Just replace "Sudetenland" with "Chechnya".

Since the end of the cold war Russia has invaded and annexed Chechyna, Georgia, Crimea, and now Eastern Ukraine. Why on earth do you think they will stop of their own volition ?

How far do you let them get before you stop appeasing them due to their nuclear blackmail ?

If they want east Germany back, should we let them have that too, if they threaten nukes ?

 

[GOPerfect]

This little war is nearly over, I said at the start of the thread that Russia would win...

I was correct.

 

[spat]

This little war is nearly over, I said at the start of the thread that Russia would win...

I was correct.

What does "winning" look like for Russia in your estimation?

 

[GOPerfect]

What does "winning" look like for Russia in your estimation?

Ukraine giving up/

 

[holdover]

Since the end of the cold war Russia has invaded and annexed Chechyna, Georgia, Crimea, and now Eastern Ukraine. Why on earth do you think they will stop of their own volition ?

Thats funny, NATO wanted to enter Georgia, Crimea, and eastern Ukraine , what a coincidence. You just made Russias point about encroahment on her borders .

As far as numbers go, 6000 was a ball park number , But just for shits and giggles give me a number of nuclear weapons capable of hitting the US include submarines and air craft launched, We'll work with that Ok?

what do ya think about 6 or 7 ? maybe 10? and were going to stop them with the same systems protecting kiev ,Ukraine?

 

[holdover]

Your reliance on the "6000 warheads" number shows how ill informed you are about the topic.

No it was off the top of my head , I didnt research the actual number, But i knew it was in the ball bark give or take . Point being , Its a lot.

 

[holdover]

Because maybe you say "sacrificing Ukraine is worth it to avoid a nuclear war". But, if you're going to say that, then it's inevitable that Putin will, within a few years, decide Ukraine isn't enough and he wants something else. That's been proven over and over as he has gobbled up his neighbors one by one over the last couple decades.

Sooner or later he'll decide he wants something you aren't willing to sacrifice, and it will be all the worse when it happens.

Thats hogwash. Putin wasnt even ready for war in 22. He was begging for a solution to the issue before the war started .He dam well knows he cant take on NATO, it would end up going nuclear. He invaded Ukraine with roughly 150 - 250K troops in 22 . Ukraine had 700k under arms , He was in no way shape or form ready for a full blown war against NATO , hell, even Ukraine . He went to war with the army he had.

He was gambling on a decapitation strategy, He was hoping the Ukraine army would join ranks with them, and the war would be over

 

[holdover]

How far do you let them get before you stop appeasing them due to their nuclear blackmail ?

LOL appeasing them, thats rich,

 

[spat]

Thats hogwash. Putin wasnt even ready for war in 22. He was begging for a solution to the issue before the war started .He dam well knows he cant take on NATO, it would end up going nuclear. He invaded Ukraine with roughly 150 - 250K troops in 22 . Ukraine had 700k under arms , He was in no way shape or form ready for a full blown war against NATO , hell, even Ukraine . He went to war with the army he had.

He was gambling on a decapitation strategy, He was hoping the Ukraine army would join ranks with them, and the war would be over

So, why the fuck did he invade ?

He's ridiculously outclassed by NATO, who are right on his doorstep.

Nothing he could have hoped to do in Ukraine could have changed that.

None of that rhetoric passes even a basic sanity check.

No, the only reasonable explanation for the invasion was a resource grab. He'd gotten away with it 3x so far, and Biden all but gave him permission to go again.

And if he would start a nuclear war over some territory he's kinda sorta held for a couple years at most, then he needs to go, now, regardless of the cost. Because no matter how high the cost is, it'll only go up.

 

[spat]

Ukraine giving up/

What does that mean, giving up what ?

You think Russia is going to annex all of Ukraine ?

The territory they occupy now ? More ? Less ?

 

[spat]

LOL appeasing them, thats rich,

Well, what else do you call letting them invade and conquer 3 1/2 neighboring countries.

 

[GOPerfect]

What does that mean, giving up what ?

You think Russia is going to annex all of Ukraine ?

The territory they occupy now ? More ? Less ?

Quitting the fight due to not being good enough to continue.

Nope.

Don't know, don't care.

The Ukraine will quit, just as I said they would.

 

[spat]

Thats funny, NATO wanted to enter Georgia, Crimea, and eastern Ukraine , what a coincidence. You just made Russias point about encroahment on her borders .

As far as numbers go, 6000 was a ball park number , But just for shits and giggles give me a number of nuclear weapons capable of hitting the US include submarines and air craft launched, We'll work with that Ok?

what do ya think about 6 or 7 ? maybe 10? and were going to stop them with the same systems protecting kiev ,Ukraine?

NATO wanted to court those countries to *join*.

You know what the difference is, right ?

It's like the difference between sex and rape. It all comes down to consent.

You are saying "NATO was trying to wine and dine the girl Putin had had his eye on, so he clubbed her over the head and dragged her back and chained her up in his basement". As if that's some sort of justification for his actions.


So, I did give you some numbers. 900 land based and 600 submarine based.

And that illustrates precisely *why* you take him out first if you think there's any chance he might launch.

Currently, there is no effective defense against ICBMs or SLBMs. We can shoot down theater ballistic missiles, if we are defending the specific area they are targeted at. They travel in the neighborhood of Mach 10.

But ICBMs and SLBMs travel much faster. Mach 25 or more. We had a terminal defense system for them in the 1970s, but we negotiated that away and haven't rebuilt.

So, if Russia decides some line has been crossed when we try to stop him from invading Poland or whatever, it's game over in the west.

I don't know what the failure rate on his missiles would be, could be as high as 90%, might be as low as 10%. But either way, that's enough to destroy every strategic military target and major city in all of the west.

The US reply would of course utterly end Russia.

Now, on the other hand if we think he is about to launch, and we decide to strike first, then his subs are instantly gone. The attack subs we have following them would sink them before any Russian knew what happened.

There's only maybe one or 2 russian ballistic missile subs at sea at a time.

That's not super time critical. Nobody outside the US sub would know it happened probably for days.

Once the US subs reported back that their mission was accomplished, then a strike can be conducted against the ICBMs. The precise location of all of them is known for sure.

They have those 900 land based warheads loaded on something like 300 missiles.

I think we could take out the vast majority of them in a conventional first strike with stealth aircraft before a launch order could be given.

That combined with the failure rate associated with their poor maintenance we could be looking at only a few dozen warheads headed to the west.

And that's *without* engaging nuclear weapons.

 

[spat]

Quitting the fight due to not being good enough to continue.

Nope.

Don't know, don't care.

The Ukraine will quit, just as I said they would.

By that logic you could say Russia will lose because they will quit too.

Unless you set some specific victory condition, "who won" is just a semantic argument.

 

[GOPerfect]

By that logic you could say Russia will lose because they will quit too.

Unless you set some specific victory condition, "who won" is just a semantic argument.

The ukraine will call quits. Not Russia.